未来技术神话
什么会像10年后世界将会如何?从现在起40年?请问摩尔定律的延续,最终使我们能够通过自动化的机器人已经运行的社会呢?将我们征服了全球变暖和庆祝,因为我们作为一个民族的奇异做法备受赞誉的前景如何?一些 未来学家,人们谁在这个投机类交易,取得了这种性质的预测,但也有那些谁表示,这些预测是不准确的。在这篇文章中,我们将在有关技术将来有可能神话看一些流行的观点。
这样的预测,特别是在技术领域的未来趋势或动态的发展,本质上是不确切的,但它有可能使一些知情的猜测。当然,这也是可能的人则认为,关于这些技术的一些现实相反的观点,但在这种情况下,有足够的证据,特别是从专家那里,他们诊断为神话。
让我们首先对后工业时代的伟大传奇的机器之一:飞行汽车。
不久,我们都会驾驶飞行汽车
飞行汽车被预言了几十年。它是对未来的乌托邦社会,在那里每个人都以压缩周围的空气和土地,通过轻松,安静,安全的地方,他或她想要的终极目标之一。
你可能已经看到了飞行汽车的原型的影片,同时从地面起飞,悬停和可能崩溃。但在第一次“autoplane”实际上是在1917年推出,许多类似的努力都跟随。亨利福特预测飞行汽车来了 – 1940年 – 和有大量虚假的警报至今。
进入21世纪的一个十年,我们似乎没有任何密切,尽管你可能阅读部落格小工具。由于资金枯竭,美国航天局放弃了比赛的发明创造“个人飞行器”,并似乎没有被另一个政府机构,但也许是DARPA的秘密,随时准备承担该项目。
有一个简单的飞行成为广泛采用的汽车太多的挑战。成本,飞行路径和规章,安全,恐怖主义的潜在用途,燃油效率,培训飞行员/驱动器,着陆,噪声,从汽车和运输行业的反对派 – 所有在一个正当的飞行汽车阻碍。此外,这些车辆将可能要能够成为汽车运作正常的道路,构成另一后勤挑战。
事实上,所谓的正在飞行的真实的东西,很多都是兜售车 可行道路 飞机 – 一个平面排序/汽车的混血儿,是不能够,说,让一个短途旅游,学校,孩子们落。此外,它们太昂贵。一个这样的车,Terrafugia过渡,为在2011 年或稍后推出集,预计将耗资20万美元。
技术奇异途径
近年来,像Ray Kurzweil的著名未来学家认为,我们正在接近奇异,作为2030年或许很快。有许多不同的概念正是正是 奇异 正在或将要。有人说这是一个真实的人工智能,可以媲美独立思考和创造性的人类。换句话说,机器将超越人类智慧和地球上的优势种,创造自己新的,更智能机器的能力。其他人则认为这会涉及这样的计算能力,不知怎的,人类和机器将合并,创造新的东西,比如上传到一个共享的神经网络,头脑爆炸。
如对作家和学者道格拉斯霍夫斯塔特,索赔奇异性,批评,这些是“科幻小说的情节”这基本上是投机。霍夫施塔特称他们并没有用含糊的是什么造就了人类与技术[当代源的关系的讨论: 罗斯]。还有证据表明,这类小的“浪潮”的技术创新,库兹威尔和其他未来学家预言迫在眉睫[来源: 罗斯].
米奇•卡普尔,在莲花的前任首席执行官,被称为奇点“,为140人智商智能设计”[来源: 奥基夫]。一本杂志称之为“对野人”着迷 – 几乎没有一个免费的字词[来源: 哈斯勒]。计算机科学家杰夫霍金斯认为,尽管我们可以创建高度智能机器 – 远远超过任何更大,我们现在 – 真正的智能依靠“经验和训练,而不仅仅是先进的编程和先进的处理能力[源”: 电机及电子学工程师联合会].
怀疑者指出了许多科幻和幻想,过去还没有来作为证据,证明奇点只是另一种乌托邦式的梦想在天空的梦想 – 例如真正的预言,我们没有基地或人造月亮重力呢。他们还认为,理解意识的本质是不可能的,更不用说在创建这个机器的能力。最后,未来的奇异即将在很大程度上取决于对摩尔定律,正如我们在下一页上讨论的继续,可能会受到损害。
我们能阻止气候变化
全球变暖是不可避免的?许多科学家的共识是,它是,至少在一定程度上,我们只能希望停止与重大灾害的后果和处理。世界上最权威的气候有人说,人类已经通过了不归路[来源谚语点: 鲍仁斯坦]。联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会,有2000多名科学家,在2007年举行会议,发表了严峻的警告后首次宣布,2001年全球气温已上升。
即使是现在,我们看到,如冰川融化和海平面上升使南亚气旋更严重的气候变化的影响。的影响预计将在发展中世界[来源,特别是为亿万人民的严重: 坎特]。图瓦卢的环礁现在威胁到整个民族的淹没处理高潮。
如果我们今天没有产生后,更多的温室气体,世界将看到一个仍然在华氏1度的温度下个世纪中叶增加,因为现有的二氧化碳会在大气中停留一个半多世纪[来源: 鲍仁斯坦]。 (一些国家正在尝试做这个事情,如挪威,这是抽水有限公司2 把废弃的地下油井。)和3至6度增加了潜在的灾难性本世纪末可能华氏[来源: 鲍仁斯坦].
剩下的主要问题,对一些,是气候变暖的数额是否可以控制在较低水平,以防止这些灾难性的情景。鼓励基层环境行动固然重要,但政府间的合作是最重要的,这是非常缓慢,尤其是美国,中国和印度。我们还专家说,需要开始规划如何应对气候变暖有关的灾害,如协助沿海地区,建立快速反应的野火单位和致命的热浪准备。
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