全球变暖与反变暖之争和病态科学
全球气候变暖究竟是无可置疑的权威结论，还是一个缺乏科学依据的谎言？为什么这一研究难度极大的复杂科学问题，在IPCC一方研究得出的结论全是不利的结果，而NIPCC一方则全是有利的。真正科学的结论会是这样吗？
近年来有关温室气体，特别是CO2使全球气候变暖并将导致灾难性后果的理论，已成为全球关注和讨论的重点，各国政要、媒体、企业家以及各类非政府组织纷纷发表意见，商讨应对方法。几个月前刚开完的哥本哈根气候会议，让人们见证了这一问题的尖锐性和复杂性。
在这场旷日持久的争论中，笔者认为，目前，不管是支持全球变暖的政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC），还是反对该意见的国际非政府间气候变化专门委员会（NIPCC），都出现了疑似病态科学的症候。
科学界：变暖派PK反变暖派
在科学界内部，有关全球气候变暖的问题正吵得天翻地覆。
持“人类自身排放的温室气体导致全球气候变暖”观点的是联合国直接支持的IPCC。IPCC成立于1988年，迄今发布了四份关于全球气候变化的评估报告：IPCC-FAR，1990；IPCC-SAR，1995；IPCC-TAR，2001；IPCC-AR4，2007。并正在准备第五份评估报告。
差不多与此同时，持反对意见的一批科学家从1993年起成立了一个针锋相对的组织，并在2007年正式命名为NIPCC。NIPCC于2009年6 月发布了题为《气候变化的再思考》的报告，对IPCC-AR4，2007评估报告逐条作了尖锐批评。
由于IPCC是联合国领导的官方组织，其历年发布的报告均作为重要文件送交各联合国成员国，为各国政策制定者所参考；对比之下，知道NIPCC声音的人较少。但双方争论激烈的程度，是科学史上十分罕见的。除了提出各自的科学依据外，双方还都动用了学术以外的各种手段。但归根结底，这场争论最后仍然要靠科学来决定。笔者以为最为核心的，应是以下几个问题：
I）全球变暖最直接的表现是地球气温的升高。世界各国的气温观测站是否确实测出气温的升高？
II）如果地球气温确实升高了，原因何在？人类排放的温室气体起什么作用？
III）假如地球气温升高了，带来的后果是什么？以上三点双方的根据和分歧在哪里？
现分别介绍如下：
I）全球气温如何变化？
真正有仪表测量而记录下来的地表气温数据大致始自1850年。IPCC-AR4，2007中总结如下：1995~2006年间，有11年进入了有仪表记录以来最热的12年之中；1906~2005年的百年温度升高0.74℃±0.18℃，其中最后50年的每10年温度上升0.13℃±0.03℃，比百年平均的每10年升高值要高出一倍（见图一）。
图一 全球气温变化曲线图
图一 全球气温变化曲线图
但是地球气温是高度变化的，有昼夜和四季的变化,有大气环流的变化,太阳辐射的11年周期会带来变化，偶发性的火山喷发也对气温影响巨大，等等。所以，要真正了解工业革命以来的地球气候变化，至少要扩展到千年尺度来看。1998年，以M.E.Mann为首的3位美国气候学家利用仪器测量的结果，和间接样品的推断，得到了从1400年到20世纪以来的北半球气温变化曲线，随即又在1999年将这一曲线进一步上推，第一次较完整地给出了1000多年以来地球气温变化的历史。其主要特点是：1900年以前，温度曲线变化平缓，而进入20世纪以来，出现快速上升。这一曲线被形象地命名为“曲棍球球杆曲线”。由此，Mann等人得出结论：20世纪后半世纪地球北半球温度之高，是近1000多年来所未有的。
因为这一曲线可作为人类排放的温室气体致使地球变暖的重要证据，Mann等人的工作在科学界内外引起高度关注。IPCC几乎是立即接受了Mann等人的工作，在IPCC2001年评估报告中引用了曲棍球球杆曲线，美国前副总统戈尔著名的《尴尬的真相》的纪录片中也收录了这个结果，之后又被各媒体广泛传播。
但这一曲棍球球杆曲线在两个问题上受到质疑和批评。一是集中在对曲线平缓部分的质疑。批评者认为，有大量文献和样本测量资料表明这一时期中出现过一个“中世纪温暖期”，那时的温度可能比现在还要高；同时也出现过几次被称为“小冰期”的寒冷时期。所有这些变化在曲棍球球杆曲线中都没有反映。另一部分批评意见是认为Mann等人所选样品有偏向，特别是处理数据的方法有错误，才导致了曲棍球杆这一特定形态曲线的出现。在持批评意见的学者中，尤以两位数理统计学者S.McIntyre和R.McKitrick的意见引人注目。他们在2003年的论文中除了指出多处Mann原文中的失误之外，还宣称利用原作者的方法无法重复该结果。在2005年的文章中，两人又进一步指出：原作者在统计处理的方法上存在严重问题。
多位学者参与了这场争论。激烈的争论导致美国国会于2003年介入。国会责令由美国国家科学院（NAS）成立一个专门委员会，重新审视和重建过去 2000年地球表面温度。该委员会由12名科学家组成。2006年，委员会发布报告，基本肯定了Mann等人的工作，但对置信程度作了保留。此报告的结论是：20世纪是近400年以来最热的。但这一报告并未使反对者信服。NIPCC就指出，400年前正是小冰期的谷底，此后气温必然上升。后来，IPCC将有关近千年地球表面温度变化的特点在IPCC-AR4，2007中总结如下：
“20世纪后半世纪地球北半球平均气温很可能（按报告所给不确定性的定义，对应＞90%的可能性）是最近500年以来，50年平均气温值中最高的，也可能（对应＞66%的可能性）是最近至少1300年以来50年平均气温值中最高的。
对于球杆的平直部分，IPCC-AR4，2007也认为该部分并不真正平坦：12世纪，14世纪，17世纪和19世纪都出现过较冷的气候；还有一组重建数据表明11世纪可能出现过一个较暖期。但IPCC仍对中世纪暖期（950年～1100年）的存在表示怀疑（见图三）。
总的来说，在近百年的温度上升值这一点上，IPCC和NIPCC没有明确的分歧。双方争论的焦点是过去1000多年来地球温度变化的历史，特别是是否存在中世纪温暖期这一高温历史时期。
回顾这一争论过程，应该承认，这基本上是一场科学争论。但是双方都承受了来自科学以外的巨大压力。以Mann为例，作者不仅被要求到国会作证，还被要求提供所有论文的原始资料，以及作者过去和现在的科学合作者，本人得到的各种资助的材料等等信息。这种调查，按美国科学促进协会（AAAS）的评论，已不仅是为了了解情况，而是在伤害科学家以及他的工作。另一方面，批评Mann的McIntyre和McKitrick也不轻松。例如有人诟病他们只是统计学家，不是气象学家，意见不够专业。这两位作者还在2003年和2005年文章的致谢部分特别声明：本工作没有申请，也没有得到过任何资助。似乎是想以此说明，这项工作与可能的利益集团无关。
II）地球近百年平均气温升高的原因是什么？
实测表明：地球大气中CO2的含量在近8000年的时间段内只变化了约20ppm，但是自1750年工业革命到2005年这段时间却增加了约 100ppm。可以计算出，1995年到2005年，由于CO2浓度的增加，所贡献的辐射强迫增加了约20%。这一正值的辐射强迫正对应温度的上升。
这使得人们很容易得出以下两个猜想或假设：1）工业革命后大气中CO2的增加，是大量化石能源的使用而导致的；2）人类排放的CO2导致地球平均温度增加。但是，从科学上看，这两个假设还必须有科学的证明。
对于第一个假设，即现在大气中CO2含量的增加是由人类活动引起，大气物理学家的工作给出了较强的证明。大气中C元素有两个稳定同位素12C和 13C，化石能源燃烧而排放的CO2中12C的浓度更大。实测表明，大气中CO2的增加与13CO2相对浓度的减少是同步的，这就直接表明，是人类排放，即化石能源的燃烧，导致CO2的增加。不仅如此，碳的燃烧还要消耗氧，测量发现，随着CO2的增加，氧在大气中呈减少趋势。此外，能源石化燃烧时还排放其他的温室气体，在测量中也得到合理印证。
对于第二个假设，即地球温度的增加是由人类排放的CO2而引起的，相应的科学证据要弱得多。但是，两件事实有关联并不等于存在因果关系。因为完全可能有相反的解释：是温度上升引起CO2浓度的增加，例如，海水升温后会排放更多CO2从科学上看，早期对气候变化原因的研究，大都局限单变量的时间序列的分析，如全球或某地气温随时间变化的历史，由此要找出它的变化原因是困难的。随着气候学研究的进步，对气候变化的探测和归因研究已不再局限于单个变量。例如，温度除了随时间的变化，还有随高度的分布，随地球经纬度的分布，以及这些分布随时间的变化。特别重要的是不仅测量各温度随时间变化的本身，更要研究变化的快慢，即变化的速率。这就是IPCC强调的，通过这种多因素的图象（pattern）识别，并和理论模型的计算相比较，找到引起气候变化的主要原因，或“指印”（fingerprint）。根据这种“指印”的综合研究，IPCC-AR4，2007所作的结论是：
“20世纪中期以来主要观测到的全球气温的上升有>90%的可能性是由于人类排放的温室气体浓度的增加所引起。”而过去半个世纪全球变暖的图像表明：“如果不考虑外来因素（指人类排放的影响），而只用自然变化就可以成功解释这一现象的可能性<5%。”
对于IPCC这一对全球气温上升原因的结论，NIPCC持完全相反的意见。批评意见之一是：根据地球古气候资料，地球经历了很多次温度的涨落，大气中CO2的浓度也曾大起大落，有时比现在的浓度还要高。“很多时候，是先有温度升高，然后才是CO2浓度的增加”，很难判断两者之间孰因孰果。批评的另一主题，是对地区温度随大气高度分布的图像分析。IPCC认为从这一图像中，已找到人类排放温室气体的“指印”。其具体论点是：所有模拟地球大气环流的模型计算都表明，在热带地区（指南纬20度或30度至北纬20度或30度），如果是由温室气体引起升温，则从地面开始，在该地区的对流层中，升温的年变化速度随高度而增加，在大约10公里处达到极大。此处温度的10年变化率约为地面的两倍左右。然后随高度进一步升高而减小，直至达到平流层时变为负值。如果这一图像能被观测所证实，就可以判定是温室气体导致了地球温度的升高。但这是一项精度和稳定度要求极高的长时间的温度测量，难度相当大。不过，在IPCC- AR4，2007中，特别强调雷达和卫星的测量自2001年第三次评估报告以来有很大改进。测量结果是：自1979年起，地表的温度变化是 0.16℃/10年～0.18℃/10年，与此同时，对流层中则是0.12℃/10年～0.19℃/10年。两者相比，IPCC认为，在对流层中温度变化率随高度增加而增加的可能性>66%，平流层中温度变化率也很显著地变为负值。
NIPCC的论点是：看到这一“指印”，并不能完全证明人类排放温室气体导致全球变暖；而看不到这一“指印”，却足以否定这一结论。根据2006年美国气候变化科学纲要（CCSP）提供的结果：“模型计算是温度斜率随高度增加，而观测结果正相反，升温速度最快的出现在地表，而不是在大气对流层中。”同时NIPCC报告还引用了Douglass等人2007年发表的论文，这些工作表明观测的温度变化率随高度变化与温室气体致暖的模型计算结果不一致；并认为，如果认真对待这些“指印”结果，温室气体就不是现在的气候变暖的主要原因。
其实，即使模型计算和观测结果一致，由这一指印导出的结论仍然是模型依赖的，更何况现有的测量误差很大，可置信度并不高。但NIPCC所赖以作出反结论的如Douglass等人的工作，是在2007年才发表的，不可能进入IPCC-AR4，2007的文献资料中，是否可靠，还需要等待双方科学家的进一步的评估和验证。
III）假如全球气温真的升高，会有怎样的后果？
IPCC预测，如果大气中CO2的浓度持续上升到工业革命前的2倍左右，即达到约为550ppm，全球的平均气温可能（>66%可能性）落在 2℃到4.5℃的范围内。最可能值大约是3℃。
IPCC认为，全球气温上升，将出现很多严重后果，这些后果本身也是气温升高的证据：
i）极地冰川的范围大小和厚度都在减小。20世纪50年代以来，春夏季冰川面积已减小了10%~15%，并还在继续变小。
ii）非极地冰川被认为进入20世纪以来广泛退缩，同时还伴有冻土带的退化。但IPCC关于喜马拉雅山冰川严重退缩并将在2035年消失一说，被证明科学根据不足。这一事件也成为批评IPCC的重要根据之一。
iii）冰川融化的后果之一是海水量的增加，更由于海水体积随温度的增加而膨胀，海平面在逐年上升。IPCC-AR4，2007提供的数据是：20 世纪海平面的平均年升高量1.7±0.5mm/年，而且近年来还有增加的趋势。大量数据表明自1993年以来，海平面上升速度为3mm/年，以这样的速度上升，将给许多的岛国和沿海地区带来严重后果。但在具体的后果估计上，如对荷兰的预测，IPCC又一次夸大了危险性，成为反对者的把柄。
iv）极端天气事件出现的频率增加。暴雨、干旱、酷暑和寒潮将不断袭击人类。IPCC-AR4，2007举出2003年席卷欧洲的热浪的例子。
总之，按照以上各后果的综合，人类如不采取行动，将面临严重的天灾人祸。
针对IPCC的结论和观点，NIPCC的报告给出完全不同的结论和判断：
i）已知全世界冰川约有16万个，其中到目前为止有数据记录的不足42%。特别是冰川有的消融，有的增长，同一个冰川也存在前进和退缩。普遍认为大多数冰川在退缩，但这和CO2及20世纪温度上升没有关系。
ii）海平面分布是高度不均匀而且是多变的，受海洋环流和大气环流强度、地形以及地球重力场形变的影响。要算准在温度作用下，海平面的升降，其难度极大。更何况对计算依赖的现有数据，还有不同的解读。
iii）首先是并没有观测事实表明20世纪出现了极端天气事例的增加。其次是如何证明这一“增加”是全球气温升高所引起的？NIPCC甚而认为有资料表明，最温暖的20世纪中极端天气事例出现得比历史上更寒冷的时期更少。
NIPCC总的结论是：1）自20世纪中期以来全球气温的升高，自然原因很可能是主要原因，人类排放的温室气体不起主要作用。那种认为人类排放的温室气体正在引起灾难性的地球气温升高的声音，毫无科学根据。2）地球气温的升高和CO2浓度的增加只会对人类、植物和野生物种更有利，而IPCC的结论是高度有选择性和有争议的。3）由IPCC的不全面和不科学的结论引发的对全球变暖非理性的恐惧症，将引发经济上不合理、不合算的措施出台，如不现实的汽车耗能的苛刻标准，建造昂贵的利用风能、太阳能、生物质能可再生能源发电站，耗费巨资的二氧化碳深埋计划等。NIPCC还批判了国际上碳排放限额和碳交易的做法。认为以上这些措施和政策都将使“包括我们在内的大量民众受损，而得利的只是少数”。
NIPCC声称：科学被错误地利用来制定错误的政策，而这种政策将会严重影响经济的发展，特别是影响低收入人群。NIPCC公开发表声明，并募集签名向美国政府发出呼吁书，呼吁美国政府不支持《京都议定书》及一切类似的国际协定，现在拟议中对温室气体排放的限制只会对环境有害，并损害人类自身利益。 NIPCC声称到2009年为止呼吁书在美国已征集到31478人的签名，而发信征集签名呼吁书的是已故上届美国国家科学院主席，Rockefeller 大学终身名誉教授F.Seitz博士。
科学以外的变暖派PK反变暖派
从以上介绍中可以看出，双方争议的焦点本质上都是科学问题。按理说，科学上不同观点的争议是科学研究的常态。但是，像现在这样引起如此多的政界人士和媒体关心的，确是少见。特别是争论的双方都有意识地动用“群众”，以显示己方的“优势”。
例如前节已经提到，NIPCC的呼吁书已征集到的签名人数31478人，其中有9029人拥有博士学位头衔，这已10倍于参与IPCC 2007年评估报告工作的人数。注意到在9029人中有5810人是物理和空间科学学科的人，因此双方都注意争取美国物理学会支持。2007年美国物理学会发表了正式的政策宣言，支持IPCC的主张。2009年7月，包括诺贝尔奖得主在内的超过200位物理学家联合向学会提出动议，要求修改学会以前对气候变暖的政策主张。但是学会否决了这一要求，并认为和美国物理学会47000名会员数相比，这只是一小部分人。最近，又有255名美国科学院院士在2010 年5月7日《科学》杂志上联名发表公开信，支持变暖派。
变暖派和反变暖派的较量不仅出现在美国。据报道，今年，法国著名地质学家、国家科学院院士克洛德·阿莱格尔在他的新书中将矛头直指IPCC，认为气候变暖是一个缺乏科学依据的谎言。这激怒了法国的气候专家们，4月1日，法国10余家知名科研机构的400名气候学家发表公开信反驳阿莱格尔。信中要求法国高教与科研部长对气候问题明确表态，以证明IPCC结论的科学性与正确性。
这一事件在法国引起极大反响。毕竟，科学是否正确不能靠“民主”手段投票表决，更不能靠领导表态，再权威的组织如IPCC或个人都不能垄断真理。
变暖派与反变暖派之争之所以这么受重视，是因为这场争论直接涉及能源问题。所有反变暖派的理论和学者，都首先被怀疑是否是在为化石能源界的巨头或相关利益集团代言，而以IPCC为代表的变暖派则很自然地就站在了道义的制高点——为拯救地球和全人类而战。但是，另一方面，人们清楚地看到，变暖派的理论和结论正成为某些发达国家用来限制发展中国家发展的武器。许多发展中国家正处于大量使用能源的高峰期。在这种时期要求限制其碳排放，其实就是限制这些国家的发展。于是，人们看到，以中国、印度、巴西等发展中大国为代表的一方，坚持“共同的，但是有区别的责任”，和以美、英、法等发达国家为代表的另一方在气候问题上进行着尖锐的较量。这也就解释了为什么在气候变化的问题上，爆发了如此尖锐的两派之争。
变暖派与反变暖派，病态科学乎？
病态科学，原文pathological science，是已故诺贝尔奖得主Irvine Langmuir于上世纪50年代最先提出的。Langmuir从科学史的大量事例中注意到一类现象，在一个科学研究过程中，科学家本人并未有意作假，但却被自己强烈的主观愿望所支配，偏离了客观的科学描述，出现错误或者失误，但是科学家本人往往不承认而且坚持这种失误。Langmuir将这种现象命名为病态科学。
也许并不是所有人都赞同病态科学的提法，但是科学家个人的心理状态会影响其所从事的研究工作，则是大家公认的事实。在医学领域有一个著名的必须遵守的“双盲”原则，就是为了避免测试者和被测试者主观心理因素对研究过程的干扰。近年来，在笔者所熟悉的以纯自然界为对象的粒子物理学研究中，也提出并认真注意实施双盲原则的变种—— 单盲（blindness)，即在一些稀有事例，例如中微子的研究中，实验精心设计，使数据处理者事先完全不知道所处理的数据中是否有真信号的出现。这种办法的唯一目的就是屏蔽研究者的主观心理状态对研究结果的干扰。
从科学上看，气候变化问题是研究难度极大的复杂问题。仅从实验数据的处理角度看，研究者面对的是大量的数据，真实的微小信号完全淹没在噪声本底之中。正是这种情况下最容易得出研究者主观期望得到的“结果”；因此，有经验的科学家此时会特别谨慎。在这场变暖和反变暖的大争论中，还没有证据表明某某人的研究工作已进入“病态”。但是，已出现的一些迹象却令人担忧。例如，IPCC已经承认的冰川门事件、荷兰海平面上涨事件等，都是因研究人员的错误所致。但是，为什么这些错误总是偏向“变暖”这一结论？还有，CO2浓度增加和地球气温升高，从IPCC一方研究得出的结论全是不利的结果，而NIPCC一方则全是有利的。真正科学的结论会是这样吗？又例如，NIPCC可以指出和批评IPCC一方不科学，甚至是错误的结论，但为什么要反对大力发展先进的节能技术和可再生能源技术，理由仅仅是因为它们太贵，有损广大人群的利益？！
现在，IPCC宣称已经注意到自己在工作程序中的失误，并准备在第五份评估报告时加以改进。相信反变暖派一方的学者们也会更严谨地对待自己的研究。不过笔者以为，双方都应该高度关注和提防病态科学的出现，具体说来，就是应该认真考虑在气候问题的研究中如何引入和实现（至少部分实现）单盲（blindness）原则，防止研究者心理因素的干扰。
同样重要的，是科学工作者工作的外部环境，因为这对工作者的心理也会产生巨大影响。社会公众不应该对科学家施加有倾向性的压力，既要尊重IPCC的科学观点，也要尊重批评IPCC的科学观点。笔者特别呼吁媒体：让科学家自己来解决他们的争论和分歧。我手上就有一份今年三月某著名报纸所发文章，大标题是《气候变化评估权威性无可置疑》（暗指IPCC的评估报告）。这种明显带有以势压人嫌疑的文章不仅不会帮助解决问题，反而会添乱。
变暖派和反变暖派，IPCC 和 NIPCC 都应该警惕病态科学的干扰！（作者为中国科学院理论物理研究所研究员）
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